Small gains which still weren't enough to break through 50-day MA of the Nasdaq or Russell 2000; 50-day MAs of the S&P and Dow remain some distance away. Volume was slightly higher, suggesting modest accumulation - but nothing more. Technicals of the Nasdaq Bullish Percents are all negative, supporting the idea of an intermediate top. Potential Nasdaq buyers remain best served by waiting for the 50-day MA to break. Buyers are unwilling to get involved and this means weaker prices from lack of demand rather than active selling. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Using John Murphy's four factors: Consumer Expectations, Industrial Production, Interest Rates amd the Yield Curve when can we expect this recession to end? Article published on Zignals . Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Although the Nasdaq spent Monday below its 50-day MA it did manage to successfully test rising support from November-January reaction lows. Money flow is on the wane so if there is to be any momentum it will need to crack through the 50-day MA over the next couple of days, otherwise a swift move down to 1,400 would appear favoured. Transports are testing major support and what happens here will say alot by the broader market's ability to hold November lows as support. Bulls have much work to do; bears can simply sit back and watch. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Small changes didn't alter the larger picture to any degree. The Nasdaq 100 held on to its 50-day MA but volume was light and buyers weren't exactly chomping on the bit. The semiconductor index was a little more comfortable in holding the 50-day MA as support and is the best avenue for driving the rally in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Large caps were a little more uncertain and are at risk of greater losses. So the question is, which of large caps or tech will lead? Tech currently leads large caps so that's good news for bulls. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Another depressing week for the market has passed. What are the expectations going forward? Yong Pan shows a mixed bag of signals with neutral positioning dominating: SPY's showing a sell signal; short of overbought conditions, so perhaps we will see it move sideways: January is now cooked and its barometer predicts a bad 2009.... Maurice opens with an opinion piece of the stimulus package. Once again, individuals fail to understand the importance of R&D in employment creation (sigh!); it's no wonder few American citizens choose a career in research - why endure lengthy a 'apprenticeship' of up to 12 years in college to enter a marketplace which is severely underfunded, poorly paid (low morale), ignored during booms but targeted during recessions. The business of science in America has been driven by Republican disdain into a huge domestic outsourcing program; working in research is like working at the UN! Unfortunately, this is not without its risks; you don'

Early attempts at a buy signal for the Nasdaq and S&P drifted as stochastics again dropped into oversold territory. Their respective MACD's maintain a 'buy' but for all intent and purposes it looks like both indices want to check out November lows. Nasdaq Bullish Percents also kissed good-bye to its breakout, leaving instead a bull trap and a sell trigger in stochastics; best bet for bulls is a new higher low which shouldn't be too difficult, particularly if it is associated with a new low in the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq Summation Index could not have played better resistance; when it breaks it will have great significance and likely confirm the next cyclical bull market. The NYSE Summation Index has fallen into line with the Nasdaq. It too has a clear definition of resistance The sensible thing to do is to wait for breadth indicators to enter more oversold conditions before considering long side positions. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the fr

Volatility is primed to rise. A potential double bottom could be shaping up, with a push to the neckline at 56.89 a distinct possibility. In the short term we could see a move to the 50-day MA as the S&P works on a November low test. If November lows hold in the S&P then I would expect the VIX to retreat to and then below its 200-day MA; creating a seasonal rally which could last into May. If S&P November lows were to break as support then I would see no difficulty in the VIX cracking through 56.89 and set up another sharp loss scenario for the S&P, with the VIX pushing 80 yet again. My hunch says November lows will hold for the S&P but I can see the potential for disaster if they didn't. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website