The core indices scrambled above their 50-day MAs (or came close to doing so), but one leader of economic activity, the transports, actually cleared its 200-day MA and broadening wedge resistance. A new bullish trend has yet to establish given the ADX knocks aroud 15, but if the 200-day MA can hold it won't be long before a new bull rally is confirmed. The point-n-figure chart shows a triggered Bullish Catapult Breakout from Monday with a target of 5,250. But the real challenge will come on a push to 5,400 resistance. So will the Dow clear its (developing) bullish ascending triangle, or is another trip to support needed? Going by the Transports a straight breakout would be favored. Going by pattern development - another trip to support (and a better opportunity to buy) would make for a stronger pattern. Should the straight breakout occur it should happen within the next few days.

The long weekend saw a spate of buying, but can it continue into next week? The Stockcharters comment. Dr. Joe sees a correction in the Euro with room to run to the downside: His weekly summary notes an S&P downgrade for the brokerages: Too early to say what impact that will have on the futures . On this chart there looks to be a 'Buy' for the Dow: Ted Burge has the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) between support and resistance, although a rising trendline has been breached to the downside: The point-n-figure chart for the Qs has a target of $48.43. It would take a drop to $40.89 to negate that: However, interesting breakout in the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF). Note target of $35, part of Thursday's Triple Top Breakout: On the other hand, the Gold Trust Shares (GLD) has a downward target of $84.96 Maurice Walker actually kept things relatively brief this week: The last two candlesticks on the NASDAQ appear to be a Harami + pattern (1st chart below). It would not b

Yesterday's losses weren't enough to prevent a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Bullish Percents. This follows earlier crosses for the S&P and Dow bullish percents. What is clear from these charts are the bullish divergences between January and current lows for the bullish percents with respect to the parent indices. Basically, more stocks are on point-n-figure buy signals now than back in January, even with the indices making new lower closing lows. What is important going forward will be the need to break declining (closing) resistance initiated in January for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq. The Nasdaq looks best placed to challenge, although the Dow is closest to the major moving averages (20-day and 50-day MAs). Thursday probably won't reveal too much going into the long weekend, but next week should be interesting.

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Associated Estates Realty Corp ( AEC ) was one of only three picks on my breakout scan. The Residential REIT pays out 6.4% in yield, but the interest here were the multiple on-balance-volume breakouts, which eventually led to Tuesday's break of price resistance. There is the issue of overhead resistance at the 200-day MA ($11.95), but the intermediate trend is bullish (20-day > 50-day MAs). Technicals all sit on the bull side. The point-n-figure chart is neutral for a price pattern; although a move to $11.50 would trigger a breakout. The point-n-figure chart has no new price target, although resistance at $16 can be used as an alternative target. Trade my Stock Picks at

I took a look at the 2000 top for the S&P and compared how volatility from then compared to now. During the 2000 peak there were four small sub-30 micropeaks, a sharp drop, then a rally to 35 which was associated with the cliff fall for the early part of the 2001 decline in the S&P. Monday's peak above the recent triple top may precede such a decline, although breadth indicators do suggest otherwise (i.e. this will shape into a double bottom). However, it has been a while since the VIX has seen a spike to 45. It would be hard to argue against another one happening soon, which would mean more pain for the markets. The Fed may bring some short term welcome relief, but when the guts of next rally are done we could have the kind of setup where a VIX spike to 45 would be favored. Perhaps September/October of this year??? Who knows, but the beast is out there - lurking, waiting to strike.

Looks like St. Paddy's day was not one for Bear Stearns (or its employees) to celebrate. The subsequent action in the markets reflected the panic. Bill has an excellent chart showing the relationship between the VIX and 10-year Treasury Yield . This ratio is at levels last seen in the 2002/2003 bottom TraderMike has his usual succinct summary. He is watching 2,200 closely in the Nasdaq. Market reaction to Fed decision will decide whether we have support or resistance. Will the Fed cut by a full 1% ? Will Markets view it as the needed cure? Or a panic reaction to the current state of affairs? It sounds like a lot to me - but what do I know. Barry has Lehmans on B.S. watch. Steven Smith at TheStreet.com noted heavy option trading volume in B.S. over the course of the last couple of weeks. Kevin's Market Blog is looking for a measured move target down to $39-39 for the Qs . Quantifiable Edges notes how Bear ruined the traditional pre-Fed rally. But, not to be outdone, the Fed