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Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com

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Bears made a long awaited appearance in the markets. The selling may have hurt the short term holders, particularly longs in the semiconductor index - but also traders in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 , but the larger picture was little changed. The tech averages [ NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ] reversed shy of resistance, but still have a 50-day MA and sideways channel support to look forward too. The Dow lost support of its late January breakout, ending the week on the 20-day MA. The S&P finished a couple points below breakout support, but also managed to find support at its 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 didn't escape the cull, but finished well above 797 support. The markets are at important short term tests (20-day MAs) and it will take a stronger effort from the bears to break the strength of momentum bulls have developed since last summer. In the relative strength battle, large caps regained their position over tech stocks {Small caps > Large Caps > Tech averages} .

Run Away! Run Away!

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The cream was skimmed from the milk, but there is plenty of milk left to sustain the bulls. Large caps fared worst, but there wasn't enough damage done to suggest any big change for the markets. I would like to see a top, but only to get some value back in the market. Until then, it's wait-and-see. The Trade Ideas scan was slower than recent days with 8 picks covering a time span of 26 minutes . For the whole day there were only two stocks breaking the 20 appearance mark: Rohm and Hass ( ROH ) at 26 hits and Cardinal Health ( CAH ) at 25 hits . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

New Subscription Model for my Newsletter.

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**Updated June 2007 I am providing a reduced rate to buying annual membership with a KIVA certificate. The annual rate for newsletter service through KIVA is now $100 (an additional saving of 16% on regular annual membership at $119 and 44% on monthly payments of $14.99)** I have struggled to find a cost effective credit card payment provider for those who can't (or don't want to) use Paypal which is not prohibitively expensive. I know international readers have a problem subscribing using Paypal so I have opted for an alternative payment method - a KIVA gift certificate. KIVA accepts Paypal and credit cards so it should work for everyone. I will also accept this as a payment method from anyone willing to support the KIVA program. Unfortunately, those wanting monthly membership will be restricted to using Paypal. Its a win-win. [1] Members get their newsletter [2] Entrepeneurs get their money [3] Once/If the money is paid back I can recycle the money back into KIVA, or tak

Trade Ideas: LCC, WNR, GM, RNO, WGO, SZE, GDX, CTC

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Large caps are managing a solid comeback after some early morning jitters. Keep an eye on Richard Lehmans's Trend Channel Magic to get the direction of the markets. The Trade Ideas scan was a little slower, with 8 picks covering a time span of 5 minutes . Of those 8 picks, only one - MV Goldminers ( GDX ) - broke the 20 appearance barrier at 29 hits for the day. Bullish crosses for the 20-day/50-day MAs over the last 2 months occurred in General Motors ( GM ), Rio Narcea Gold ( RNO ), and Winnebago ( WGO ). From the 1-year charts there is a bullish flag taking shape in US Airways ( LCC ); a 3-month cup-and-handle for General Motors ( GM ); a potential (and scrappy) bullish ascending triangle for Rio Narcea Gold ( RNO ) - resistance at $3 is key for this formation; solid trend action for Suez SA ( SZE ) and Compania de Telecomunicac ( CTC ); and a lengthy 9-month base with resistance at $42.50 for MV Gold Miners ( GDX ). As a side point; the following 8 stocks all featured more t

Trade Ideas: FD, RHI, ASG, PPG, ACL, THI, FUN, CTV

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Indices are recovering nicely from some early losses. No shortage of stocks on the Trade Ideas scan with the 8 most recent picks coming in under 2 minutes . Of the 8 picks, not one broke the 20 apperance barrier. Recent bullish crosses between the 20-day and 50-day MAs were observed in Federated ( FD ), PPG Industries ( PPG ), Tim Hortons ( THI ) and Commscope ( CTV ). On the 1-year charts: a 'V-reversal' looks close to been completed in Alcon ( ACL ), look for a measured move to around $142. Tim Hortons ( THI ) is working through a handle with resistance at $32. Trend traders may find some love in Liberty All Star ( ASG ) or Cedar Fair LP ( FUN ); the former has coasted along the 50-day MA very nicely. Those trading consolidation breakouts should look to Federated ( FD ); a retracement back to the 20-day MA would be attractive. For comparisons sake I have included 8 stocks which have featured more than 20 times on the Trade Ideas scan today: The stocks show a little more s

Collective2: CBRX out

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I doubt anyone who had bought this would have got the exit price listed by Collective2. I had taken a 1,500 share lot at $4.87 with a stop at $4.44. The trade is listed as executed at that price - but nobody would have got that after a 67% drop on a failed Phase III trial. This should have been a -$4,500 loss, instead it shows as a -$644 loss. Go figure. Collective2

Trade Ideas: 9 minutes

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Another snooze fest for the markets. At least the breakouts are holding for small and large caps. The Trade Ideas 8 picks covered a time span of 9 minutes - a reflection of the slower buying. The picks pushing the 20 appearance barrier over the course of the whole day were: HTX ( 21 ), XCO ( 24 ), HNT ( 20 ), BBD ( 20 ), EXC ( 28 ), WYN ( 22 ), EIX ( 23 ), PEG ( 28 ), SLF ( 24 ), STA ( 30 ), PXR ( 26 ), LI ( 20 ), SCG ( 29 ), GRS ( 21 ), FAF ( 32 ), and CYH ( 23 ). The most intersting of the bunch was First American Corporation ( FAF ) as after a bright start it petered out later in the day. I have still to figure the best way to utilize this information. Below is an idealized day trade - but I wouldn't read too much into it without a real-world test. Is it better to look for trendlines after " x " appearances, or to 'buy' a threshold break of " x " appearances and to sell once the stock fails to make " y " appearances over tim

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