Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Markets attempt to rally but fall short by the close

It was looking good for the indices in early m the day, but by the close indices weren't able to hold on to their gains. However, all indices finished in positive territory and any (small) upside tomorrow would likely be sufficient to maintain momentum.

The Nasdaq closed today with a 'buy' trigger in the MACD and ADX, along with a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume.The Nasdaq is outperforming the Russell 2000 and while it has enjoyed just over a week's worth of gains it has so far resisted the initial move to the measured target. 

The S&P remains pegged by its 50-day MA, but did enjoy higher volume accumulation. On-Balance-Volume is on a 'buy' trigger with the MACD and ADX very close to following suit. As with the Nasdaq, it's outperforming the Russell 2000 - which is good for followers of the S&P and Large Cap stocks, but not great for those looking for a secular bull rally. 


While the Russell 2000 is underperforming against its peer indices, it's also struggling to get itself back above its 20-day and 50-day MAs. However, it did successfully defend its 200-day MA, so there is demand to be found for Small Cap stocks and today's action registered as confirmed accumulation. Today's doji marks a balance between buyers and sellers, so we have to wait for tomorrow to see which side will come out with an edge. 


The other index to watch is the Semiconductor Index. Technicals have improved over the last few days and are just shy of turning net positive - only stochastics to go. The index is also outperforming the Nasdaq. It has the benefit of defending breakout support, but bears could also see this as a 'bear flag'. Even if it proves to be the latter it's going to need a few days of selling for it to breakdown. If there is an index to watch tomorrow, this is it.


It's hard not to see a significant reaction in the market after the election, so any trade now will feel like one done in 'no-mans-land'. As it stands, bulls probably have a slight edge given the events of last week, but technicals are primarily bearish. It's looking more questionable for the Nasdaq to reach its measured move target down (as the S&P had done) given the generally bullish action in the Semiconductor Index. So, let's see what bulls can do over the coming weeks. If looking to trade, keep your timeframes short. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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