Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Bounce stalls despite morning gaps

Friday's rally offered a promising open with a gap higher, but there was no follow through on these gains. 

In the case of the Nasdaq, there was a close above the 50-day which also picked up the 20-day MA but if the gap is to register as a true 'breakout gap' it cannot close. There was  a 'buy' trigger in OBV to go with today's gain. The index is still outperforming Small Caps as it looks to build on its leadership role as the primary home for funds. 

Today's gains in the S&P also outperformed those of the Russell 2000. In the case of the S&P, the index closed just below its 50-day MA with a 'buy' signal in On-Balance-Volume, but other technicals remain bearish. Today's buying volume did enough to register as accumulation - something the Nasdaq was unable to achieve.


The Russell 2000 managed to post the largest gain of the lead indices. It was unable to challenge its 50-day MA or regain breakout support but it was a step in the right direction. What it does do is firm up Friday's low as a swing low.


Monday's gain in the indices formulated the basis for a swing low by providing an additional support level on today's gap; there is now the gap and Thursday's low to lean on. I'm still not hugely confident of this acting as a major swing low with the election so close, but rallies climb walls of worry - and the election is a big worry. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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