Gains Stall as Thursday's Breakdown Gap Hold Market Advance

The S&P experienced a narrow loss as it traded inside yesterday's doji, which was within Thursday's gap down. The MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger but it returned to a relative advantage against the Russell 2000, which would suggest money flowing back to defensive issues - although trading volume was light.

The Nasdaq is also in Thursday's gap as it looks to challenge the 'bull trap'. Like the S&P, it has a MACD trigger 'sell' to work with it. Today's buying came on lighter volume.

The Russell 2000 experienced larger selling, confirming yesterday's bearish black candlestick. Of the indices, the MACD, ADX and relative performance are all on 'sell' trigger. Will profit taking continue?

Today's action gave larger credence that recent action is controlled selling in line with trader profit taking. The question now is whether the buyers coming in here are value buyers or weak-hand traders. The latter group will cause an acceleration in the decline, but we are not there yet. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

Share on StockTwits

---

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.

Follow Me on Twitter


Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

.

Popular posts from this blog

S&P "Bull Trap"?

Image
I thought there was sufficient evidence to argue against a "bull trap" in the S&P, but it would appear the market wasn't interested in such thoughts and sellers were quick to reverse the initial push above 4,200.  Adding to the pain were new 'sell' triggers in MACD and On-Balance-Volume, although the former occurred above the 'bullish' zero line, making it a weak signal. Selling volume ranked as distribution as selling momentum picked up speed.  The index is also underperforming relative to the Russell 2000. 
Read more

"Black Candlesticks" are a concern for the S&P and Nasdaq

Image
A bright start for bulls on the back of positive $NVDA earnings wasn't enough to generate a day of meaningful gains.  However, it did help stall the losses of the last couple of days. The Nasdaq was the biggest beneficiary of today's action, but not enough to see an end-of-day finish that cleared last week's swing high, nor delivery of a large white candlestick, despite the morning breakout gap.  Technicals are net bullish and relative performance against the S&P has become consistently stronger since the start of May.  While today's candlestick I would view as typically 'bearish', today's volume ranked as confirmed accumulation (bullish). Overall, I would be looking for higher prices from here. 
Read more

Round 2 for the bearish "black" candlestick in S&P and Nasdaq

Image
The Nasdaq started brightly but ended up closing below its open price, but above yesterday's close. The S&P did something similar, although the intraday range is narrower. These two setups are somewhat complicated by the new 'buy' triggers in On-Balance-Volume for both the Nasdaq and S&P. And the new MACD trigger 'buy' for the S&P. Price action is key, so I would expect the candlestick to trump the technical picture; watch for lower prices tomorrow.
Read more

Archive

Show more