Monday, June 29, 2020

Buyers attempt to defend support

Sellers had managed to push indices back to support levels where buyers are looking to make a stand.  

The S&P is down at the June swing low which is also the 50-day MA. Technicals are a mix of bullish and bearish signals; the index is still underperforming against Small Caps. Selling volume in recent weeks has sided heavily with bears but On-Balance-Volume hasn't yet switched to a 'sell' trigger.  This is as good as place as any to stage a bounce and take on a low risk trade. 

The Nasdaq closed with a bullish hammer on breakout support. This is an important swing low as this is a second attempt to hold the breakout in the space of a few weeks. MACD weakness is accelerating but other technicals are bullish. 

The Russell 2000 bounced just before the June swing low, but like the S&P, sellers have controlled most of the volume over the last couple of weeks. If buyers are able to regain control of trading volume then it will quickly have to deal with the 200-day MA.  

The early June swing low is the current target for buyers, although some indices are seeing buying activity earlier than this. I would be again looking at the Nasdaq to try and lead indices out, although it will be down to the Russell 2000 for any rally to be sustainable.

You've read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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