Sunday, April 26, 2020

Friday's gain Looks to Negate Thursday's Bearish Candlesticks

Thursday had left bearish candlestick across the indices but Friday's gain was an attempt at least to eat into this supply. Buyers weren't able to completely negate the bearish implications of these candlesticks, but it was a good finish for bulls.

The S&P has probably the best of it as it edged a close just above its 50-day MA, as On-Balance-Volume ticked back in favor of bulls. The higher close has done enough to close the breakdown gap from April and has stalled the reversal, but the swing high hasn't been challenged. 

Likewise, the Nasdaq has done a little better as it's building a challenge on the 8,684 swing high. The February swing high is the last major hurdle for this index before it starts to push into the more significant February gap down. 

The Russell 2000 is also holding up well having failed to follow through lower on the April gap down of a few weeks back. However, it's a long way from making up the lost ground relative to the Nasdaq and S&P. The 'short play' is probably toast but the stop hasn't been hit, - an opening gap higher may be enough to power a rally to take out the April high (and the short stop). 

While Thursday's bearish candlesticks weren't fully reversed by Friday's action, there is a suggestion that there was sufficient buying to see some upside follow through on Monday. The fact that markets gapped down over four days ago and completely failed to follow through lower suggests bulls have more control than bears at this point. I don't see a lot of room upside, but until there is a reversal of significance - and markets have done their bit to do this - then this bear market continues to bounce. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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