The S&P had a solid finish on Friday and a positive start in early pre-market action. Buying volume has eased over Thursday and Friday, but this slowdown hasn't expressed itself in price action (yet). Technicals are all healthy.
The Nasdaq has been slower to enjoy the benefits of broader market gains. Friday's action reversed the 'sell' trigger in the MACD, returning technicals to net bullish. However, relative performance remains weak.
The longer term picture has some warning signs, but nothing to suggest concerns until the New Year rolls in. The Staples:Discretionary relationship is in a zone similar to early 2007, but it was a number of months before the market peaked, and even then, markets are unlikely to deliver a 2008 style meltdown. What I would want to see would be a broad sell off at around 30% off highs and markets meeting the loss-relative-to-the-200-day-MAs, as marked in my tables below.
While oil has seen big gains in the overnight session, Transports have had a great second half of the year. This has seen breakouts in two channels, so traders can now look to buying pullbacks for the first time since 2014.
For Monday, look for some follow through higher for indices, but weakness in premarket could be a warning sign to take profits - at least in the Russell 2000.
You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.
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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free.
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