Sunday, November 13, 2016

Gains for Small Caps and Dow, Other Indices Struggle

It was a mixed day for markets. Small Caps continued their rich vein of form with a near 2.5% gain, coming after four other days of gains. Some pullback is inevitable, but this has a good chance of becoming a buying opportunity. Relative performance has rocketed following steady declines since September.


The S&P had a very low key day on Friday. With high flying action elsewhere it was hard for S&P market participants to grab the headlines. Volume was well down on the previous day, but the index remained near recent highs - a bullish marker. Technicals are net positive.


The narrow-range Dow bucked the Large Caps trend by behaving more like the Russell 2000. A pullback in 18,600 could be a good buying opportunity. Technicals are net bullish like the S&P.



The Nasdaq started weak but was able to make up lost ground from the open. Technicals haven't yet turned net bullish, nor challenged 52-week highs. The index is also underperforming against Large and Small Caps.


The long term picture continues to improve with Transports continuing their recovery, breaking decisively out of the sharper declining channel, but only inching a breakout from the more stable declining channel dating back to 2014. If it can recover the 200-day MA it will offer a positive last-line stand for 2017.


For Monday, it will be important indices hold on to last week's highs. There may be some weakness, but if indices can hold last week's gain it could be another positive week ahead. In addition, it will soon be time to see if Santa (and his rally) will be making an appearance this year. A strong finish to the year could disguise what has been a lacklustre 12 months for indices.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free.

 
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