Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Quick Post: Markets at All-Time Highs

While away, markets have done their best to rally behind my back. The Brexit reaction has delivered surprising gains - even the FTSE 100 has broken to new near time highs - and it would appear this surprise (is it?) has caught many players on the wrong side of the trade.

It's hard to know where to go from here. The summer session is rarely one to get excited about and there is now a multi-year Brexit factor to consider along with a U.S. election to factor. It's hard to be a long term buyer here, but if you are already long there isn't much reason to sell either. Maybe as November approaches things will become clearer for U.S. markets.

Market positives are the relative out-performance of Small Caps over Large Caps:


While the S&P is underperforming against the Russell 2000 it's still posting new all-time highs. It's solid action even if volume is a little disappointing. Trading may be tight, but these rallies can inch higher as they suck shorts into a cycle of short-cover-short-cover. Existing longs will be feeling emboldened after surviving Brexit.


The Nasdaq has benefited from the shift to more speculative stocks and got a nice boost today, along with a relative performance boost against Large Caps


For the coming couple of weeks I would expect this rally to continue.  I don't like it, but I don't see what's going to stop it either...

Remember, normal blogging service will resume August 9th.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' and Jani's.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com, and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com. I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free.
 
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