Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Yesterday's Gains Reversed, But Not Total

Not wholly unexpected, but after yesterday's short covering rally (which stopped me out, grrr...), today brought a return of sellers. However, sellers didn't have it all their own way. Because of this, there may be enough for bulls to build a rally, assuming pre-market doesn't ruin things!

The Dow has struggled in recent days, but with a spike low of 17,279 to defend there is a chance for a bounce to make a test of the 50-day MA. Technicals are firmly net negative, which is no surprise, but also oversold.  On the flip side, if there is weakness in pre-market then 17,279 could be scuppered quickly. Today's selling marked as distribution.


The S&P experienced a similar sell off, but did hold support (again) at the 200-day MA. Technicals are not as week as for the Dow, and momentum is holding the 50-mid-line, which is another positive as this is typically support in bullish markets.


The Nasdaq is holding on to 5,038 support, which isn't a major support level, but is playing as one at the moment. Next level down is the 200-day MA and 4,901 swing low. Overhead, look to 5,096 and 5,150. Momentum is just below the bullish mid-line, but at a level which is suited to mount a rally.


Finally, the Russell 2000 gapped lower, but did enough not to accelerate losses. It's caught in neutral territory without any suggestion as a long or short play. If other indices gain, then bulls should have the edge.


Watch pre-market closely. If it can open near today's close it might give bulls a chance to take another punt at reversing today's losses. While the market 'feels' like it has more ground to lose, it's not going to go straight down. Volatility is tepid, another reason to think there is more downside to come.



You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' and Jani's.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. I do a weekly broadcast on Friday's at 13:30 GMT for Tradercast, covering indices, FX and gold, silver and oil - all are welcome! You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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