Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Scrappy Day

Tough day at the office with sellers having all of the fun until the Fed meeting minutes jacked up prices, only for sellers to return into the close.

For the S&P, each test of the 200-day MA weakens it, and we are probably getting close to the point we get a decent push down, and a move outside of the longstanding trading range which has plagued this market throughout 2015. Even a modest 10% correction off highs would set it to drop below psychological 2000. Should such a move occur it should be welcomed like refreshing rain on a muggy day. The market needs direction.


The Nasdaq dropped below 5,038, but 4,950 is key support - which is also close to where the 200-day MA is.  Still plenty of places for buyers to step in, and this is not looking as vulnerable as the S&P.


The key disappointment for Tech was the loss of support from what had looked to have been a bullish wedge in the Semiconductor Index.  Technicals are again all net negative.


The Russell 2000 had flagged its intent yesterday when it experienced a 0.80% loss and reversal off its 200-day MA. Today wasn't much better, but it did at least hold 1,200.


Action in markets, Large Caps in particular, is not attractive for those looking to build long term positions.  Without those buyers it's hard to see markets having the momentum to push markets out of these ranges. A solid 10-15% drop from highs would probably bring these buyers in. Keep an eye on the relationship of the indices to its 200-day MA, this is tracked in the tables below, this is another point when value buyers could emerge.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' and Jani's.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. I do a weekly broadcast on Friday's at 13:30 GMT for Tradercast, covering indices, FX and gold, silver and oil - all are welcome! You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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