Sunday, May 03, 2015

Reverse of Thursday's Losses

It was another day of to-and-fro for the markets, this time indices regained the ground they lost on Thursday. Although Friday's buying volume was lighter than Thursday's selling. The S&P had a mix of positive and negative technicals: 'sell' triggers in the MACD and +DI/-DI were countered by a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume. However, since February the only important levels of note are 2,120 resistance and rising trendline support - until these break market action is just noise.


Over the course of last week the Nasdaq changed its pattern from an attempted negation of a 'bull trap' to a bearish rising wedge. Techmicals are a little more bearish for this index with 'sell' triggers in MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. Despite this, current action favours a push to wedge resistance.


The Russell 2000 has managed to dig in at a breakout support level of 1220. However, it has turned net bearish for technicals and is experiencing a sharp relative under-performance against both Large Caps and Technological indices.


The Nasdaq 100 has also offered itself as a bearish rising wedge, like the Nasdaq. Unlike the Nasdaq, Friday's rally has occurred from within the base, not from a position of support, which leaves the index a little isolated.


Helping the Nasdaq indices was the gain in the Semiconductor Index. The Index has got a little scrappy after a picture perfect move off the 'island reversal' from last year. This may yet broaden into a broader trading range between 660 and 730, but for now, look for a challenge of a potential downward channel.


Nasdaq breadth is showing worrying divergences, in particular with the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above both 50-day and 200-day MAs. A push to oversold levels would offer an opportunity for value buyers, and a test of demand. As it stands, breadth is a caught a little in the middle, which is playing into the bearish rising wedges exhibited by both Nasdaq indices.


Markets are caught in a bit of an impasse. Until new highs are posted, or rising trendlines broken, there is little more to say.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' and Jani's.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. I do a weekly broadcast on Friday's at 13:30 GMT for Tradercast, covering indices, FX and gold, silver and oil - all are welcome! You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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