Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Volatile Flat Day for Indices

Contained Volatility is perhaps the best way to describe Tuesday's action. By the time markets closed there was little change from open prices, but it was a bit of a roller coaster ride getting there.

Not surprisingly, Small Caps had the best of the action, although relative to what's gone before it was a small change, but it's making big ground relative to Tech and Large Cap indices. The index remains within the sharp falling channel, which is unsustainable in the short term and will likely break upside sooner rather than later. At that point, I would be looking for a trading range in preparation for the next move up or down.  It has already tagged the 10% bottom percentile of loss relative to the 200-day MA (at -8.8%, taken from table below), so now is a good time to be taking nibbles on fundamentally strong Small Caps trading at a discount: look for Small Caps breaking or trading near highs (not necessarily 52-week highs: I like looking at action near 6-month highs).


The S&P finished with an inside day and potential bullish harami cross - one of the better reversal bullish candlestick patterns. A stop on a loss of Tuesday's low should be sufficient for a long position. It would be good if a rally could regain the 200-day MA (not something likely to happen this week), but I think the fast falling 20-day MA will be aggressively attacked by shorts.


It's a similar story for the Nasdaq. The April-June congestion looks like an area bulls might have confidence coming in at, so should yesterday's bullish harami cross fail, I would be looking to the sub 4,150 area for a bounce.


The other bounce play to look for is the Semiconductor Index. A move into the gap, and test of 200-day MA, looks respectable with a stop on a loss of 549.


For today, look to play longside bounces, but if yesterday's lows are whipped out in early action then it could be a case of fishing for value before the last 2 hours of trading, when bulls would be more likely to push things higher into the close.  If we do get the bounce from the open, then what happens in the last 2 hours will also be important: gains or flat action would be bullish for subsequent days.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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