Monday, October 06, 2014

Large Cap Indecision, Bearish Small Caps and Tech

Bears did a good job of keeping selling pressure in play with bearish engulfing patterns in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. There was less on offer from Large Caps, although defensive indices are not as likely to succumb to bearish pressure.

The Russell 2000 eroded what little wiggle room it had to support. However, it didn't break 1,090 or challenge the 'bear trap'. There was an excellent article on Andrew Thrasher's blog about a potential bearish head-and-shoulder pattern in the Russell 2000, which makes a lot of sense.


The Nasdaq suffered its bearish engulfing pattern with a perfect tag of resistance (former channel support). Like the Russell 2000, it could turn a bearish head-and-shoulder reversal on a push back to 4,325, with a bounce back to 4,485, before a return to 4,325 - and below.


The S&P finished with an indecisive doji. It failed to break above the 50-day MA, which will give heart to bears, but didn't give back Friday's gains either. This could still go either way, although bears probably hold an edge here given the rejection of the 50-day MA and the presence of 1,987.


The Semiconductor Index remains within the bounce zone. It exhibits a long lower shadow to denote demand buying.  Longs probably have the best chance in this index.


For tomorrow, bearish engulfing patterns give an advantage to bears, but if there is a late day charge by bulls, look to the Semiconductor Index for long side opportunities.



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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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