Daily Market Commentary: 20-day Moving Averages Hold For Now

Buyers made inroads into yesterday's relatively mild losses. The point of defense were 20-day MAs of the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.  The Russell 2000 found its love at the 50-day MA, although the 20-day MA is only a few points above it. While this offers near term upside opportunity, it has been rare for the 20-day MA to act as a launch point for a longer rally. Don't be surprised if this MA is again revisited next week.

The S&P has perhaps the most to gain given the significance of 1,987 support as it looks to push beyond the psychological 2,000 level. If there is a concern it's that technicals are favouring an expansion of the weakness: a move to the 50-day MA may be needed first.


The Nasdaq is also seeing the start of technical weakness, but Tech averages have had a good run since the start of August. It will take more than a nascent MACD trigger 'sell' to scare Tech shareholders out of their stocks.


The Russell 2000 had a good defensive stand at its 50-day MA. The trade off is that it has lost channel support. However, I would consider the hold of the 50-day MA of greater significance than a channel break (from within a larger consolidation). I suspect this will evolve into a new, broader rising channel.


As a final mention, the Semiconductor index finished with a doji, close enough to resistance to suggest another challenge of this supply is on the way. Semiconductors look poised for a nice run. Probably from a rush to new iPhone 6s!


---

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.

All Contributions Welcome - Thank You!
Follow Me on Twitter

Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com.
You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

JOIN ZIGNALS TODAY - IT'S FREE!

Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

Friday's gap downs bring indices close to support. Semiconductor Index at 200-day MA.

Image
Friday's big gaps lower have the potential to become breakdown gaps, but for now, the near term oversell has for a possible move into the gap price vacuum. The index most likely to achieve this in the coming days is the Russell 2000 ($IWM). The Russell 2000 ($IWM) finished with a neutral doji, just above its 50-day MA and in a thick band of support between $207.50 and $210 marked by the summer swing highs. Technicals have followed price action with new 'sell' triggers in On-Balance-Volume and ADX, but intermediate term stochastics haven't reached the mid-line that is typical support in bull markets. Aggressive bulls can look for a move to test the underside of the 20-day MA. The S&P was unable to hold its 50-day MA on Friday's open, and instead found itself toying with the May swing high. More significant support is likely to be found around 5,265, so if there is an undercut of Friday's low then this will be the next port of call. More concer...
Read more

"Dead Cat" Bounce or Something Better?

Image
It's still a little too early to say, but the bounce is in play and "long" is the place to be. There is a huge amount of overhead resistance and the risk:reward remains tight with moves back to Thursday's lows well within expectations. For the S&P, I would be looking for a rally back to test the 200-day MA, or a fast-falling 20-day MA, whichever is the lowest. Real supply won't kick in until 5,700 is tested, and maybe it will have the juice to get to 5,775 before volume selling makes its presence felt. As the index makes this move I expect to see a decent On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal, alongside what will be a weak MACD 'buy'; other technicals are likely to remain bearish.
Read more

Archive

Show more