Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: 'Bear Trap' in S&P

Today's action was much better news for bulls after a wide reversal swing. The S&P managed to inch a 'bear trap', although it will be vulnerable to mild selling tomorrow. On-Balance-Volume ticked to a 'buy' signal, volume climbed in accumulation, but the index finished just shy of its 50-day MA. The upside target is 1,897, risk measured on a loss of 1,814.


The Nasdaq spiked a low near the 200-day MA, but managed to finish above the December and February swing low.  The coming days may see another test of today's low, driven by a wide range day which will likely be followed by some inside days.


The Russell 2000 undercut the 200-day MA intraday, and came close to the February swing low, but finished the day well above both.


Bulls have done the easy part making back big losses today, but the real challenge will come trying to eat into last Thursday's big sell off.  Assess risk reward using the lower of the 20-day MA or last Wednesday/Thursday's high as the target, and today's low as the risk. Ideally, a low volume walk down to today's low might offer the better longside opportunity.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com.
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