Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Low Volume Gains

While it didn't bank the biggest percentage gain, the Nasdaq was able to register a day of higher accumulation, although volume was light in general.  The gain in the Nasdaq didn't change the technical picture a great deal, but it did manage a close above its 20-day MA.


It was the same story for the Nasdaq 100; it continued to honor breakout support well within the boundaries of the channel. Either of the Tech averages are set up nicely for a continuation.


The Russell 2000 enjoyed the best of the day's gains. I'm somewhat surprised by the strength of the bounce, but given the rate of advance it will be up against all-time high resistance tomorrow. This will give a good indication as to what to expect for the S&P and Nasdaq.


The S&P lacked the volume of Tech indices, and didn't see the same % gain as the Russell 2000, but it too will likely find itself up against all-time high resistance tomorrow. The index is also well off the 10% envelope (grey dotted line on chart which is 'off the page' currently) which I usually associate with profit taking, so this may evolve into a measured move higher up to this line. None of this changes the early stochastic turn which makes buying this rally now more risky.  


Long players should continue to focus on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Day traders may get more joy from the volatility of the Russell 2000.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com.
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