Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Low Risk Bounce

Bulls should have some wiggle room here. Shorts won't like the risk:reward until a rally takes the indices back to 20-day MAs. Until then, bulls can probably be fairly aggressive for the next couple of days. Today was a good start, and yesterday's lows offer the stop placement (with today's lows perhaps the raised stop going forward).

Technicals for the S&P are bearish, but with the 50-day MA some 20 points away it's more likely the rally will continue for a little longer.


The Nasdaq was able to dig in at its 50-day MA. The 20-day MA had down-ticked. and technicals are now net bearish, but a rally back to former channel support would not be unreasonable (although the 20-day MA is on the way there.)


The Russell 2000 nicely defended channel support. The index finished just a point below its 50-day MA, so bulls will want a push to the 20-day MA if there is to be any reward here.


The Nasdaq 100 gapped down a little from the open and didn't close above yesterday's close. This may be the index to trade on Wednesday.


The other index to watch for a potential long opportunity is the semiconductor index. Look to the 50-day MA as the support/risk area.


For Wednesday, look for bulls to continue to push back against the sharp selling. Best indices to trade could be the semiconductor index and Nasdaq 100. If 20-day MAs are reached, switch short, with a stop on a push to new all-time highs.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com.
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