Sunday, June 23, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary: Another Week Towards a Swing Low

Last week's response to the Fed nixed the attempted recovery in breadth metrics.  The Nasdaq Summation Index was the one breadth indicator not to react to the Fed, and is some way from entering swing low territory: it hasn't even entered negative territory.


The Nasdaq Bullish Percents is working off overbought territory and hasn't yet generated the broad collapse which commonly precedes major swing lows.


Although the process has started for the S&P (in the S&P Bullish Percents).


The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA is above 50%, but falling fast. However, strong swing lows typically appear in in the sub-20% zone, with intermediate lows in the 30-35% zone.  It will take a number of weeks before the Nasdaq is in intermediate low territory, let alone be in a position to offer a strong swing low.


The Nasdaq itself is some way from key weekly support, which should coincide with oversold breadth metrics when the index makes it down there.


The Russell 2000 has so far honored the rising channel, and is heading towards channel support - currently around 900.


So, markets look set to continue their downward descent with clear support not yet in range. Rallies on the daily frame are potential shorting opportunities, particularly if indices get to their 20-day MAs.


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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com.
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