Sunday, April 01, 2012

Weekly Market Commentary: Mixed Bag

It was a bit of a confusing week for indices.  In general, there were gains across the indices which honored prior bullish channels, but market breadth was more mixed.

The Nasdaq continued to be contained by channel resistance, although it finished off the week's high and back where it started on Monday.  Volume climbed to register as accumulation and technicals remain in good shape. The index looks destined to pull back at some point in the very near future, perhaps coming back as far as 2,900, but it hasn't indicated this yet.


The conflict is in Nasdaq Market Breadth. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents look to be rolling out from a swing high, which is bullish.


But the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA has suggested a swing low may not be complete and further weakness is likely (for the Nasdaq).


The Nasdaq Summation Index is caught in the middle, weakening on the week, but not enough to kill the developing swing low which will help bulls.


The S&P inched higher on lower volume, but has room to resistance (unlike the Nasdaq)


Small Caps finished modestly higher but has yet to cleanly clear 830 resistance


Bulls hold the edge but should Nasdaq Market Breadth takes a larger swing lower it will bring an end to the rally - at least until Market Breadth reaches an oversold condition.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements.


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