Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Daily Market Commentary: Tight Trading in S&P

Another day where bears couldn't maintain the pressure. By early afternoon it was looking good for them but buyers returned indices back to (or close to) where they started.

The S&P has been trading a very narrow range for the past five days. Bulls have been able to hold support of former channel resistance and this looks set to continue. Technicals are in good shape as relative strength swings back to the safety of Large Caps and away from speculative Tech stocks. The good news for traders is the relative easy positioning of stops; The index should break higher in the direction of the October rally, but should it not do then a stop above 1,230 should be sufficient protection for a short position.

($SPX)

via StockCharts.com

Because of the shift in buying towards Large Cap stocks, Tech indices like the Nasdaq are drifting slowly away from support. Today it was looking bad in early afternoon trading, but buyers returned to take the Nasdaq close enough to be considered in the proximity of 2,616 support (a thick band!). Technicals are still 'okay' but the Nasdaq will need to finish higher tomorrow if technicals are not to favour selling over buying.

($COMPQ)

via StockCharts.com

The Russell 2000 has started to edge ahead of the Nasdaq after a summer of under performance. Today's doji found support at its 50-day MA and it nicely positioned to challenge 731 resistance. Unusual for this index is technicals are still net bearish from July.

($RUT)

via StockCharts.com

Buyers still have the edge in this market. Small and Large Caps perhaps offer the best swing trade opportunity, although day traders may get more out of the Nasdaq (or Nasdaq 100).

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements.

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Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

"Dead Cat" Bounce or Something Better?

Image
It's still a little too early to say, but the bounce is in play and "long" is the place to be. There is a huge amount of overhead resistance and the risk:reward remains tight with moves back to Thursday's lows well within expectations. For the S&P, I would be looking for a rally back to test the 200-day MA, or a fast-falling 20-day MA, whichever is the lowest. Real supply won't kick in until 5,700 is tested, and maybe it will have the juice to get to 5,775 before volume selling makes its presence felt. As the index makes this move I expect to see a decent On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal, alongside what will be a weak MACD 'buy'; other technicals are likely to remain bearish.
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Sell The News. Nvidia Can't Save Market - Worse To Come?

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The pre-market optimism didn't last long, but when markets are coming off an extended high it's hard for buyers to return there, even off the back of 'good news'. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) opened bang on resistance at $237, and then it was all down from there. Volume surged in confirmed distribution, leaving the 200-day MA as the next logical support level.
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