Post Light until May 20th

On vacation and when I return it will be a move into a new place (setting up internet can take a while). Always something seems to happen when I'm away so no doubt the market will decide to continue downwards...

There is a bull trap in the S&P

($SPX)

via StockCharts.com

Nasdaq

($COMPQ)

via StockCharts.com

But the Russell 2000 held its 50-day MA

($RUT)

via StockCharts.com

As did the semiconductor index

($SOX)

via StockCharts.com

Can the semiconductors and Small Caps advance their cause? Or will the newly tapped bull traps in the Nasdaq and S&P take indices lower? I prefer the former scenario over the latter in the short term - but bull traps are hard to reverse.

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S&P "Bull Trap"?

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I thought there was sufficient evidence to argue against a "bull trap" in the S&P, but it would appear the market wasn't interested in such thoughts and sellers were quick to reverse the initial push above 4,200.  Adding to the pain were new 'sell' triggers in MACD and On-Balance-Volume, although the former occurred above the 'bullish' zero line, making it a weak signal. Selling volume ranked as distribution as selling momentum picked up speed.  The index is also underperforming relative to the Russell 2000. 
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"Black Candlesticks" are a concern for the S&P and Nasdaq

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A bright start for bulls on the back of positive $NVDA earnings wasn't enough to generate a day of meaningful gains.  However, it did help stall the losses of the last couple of days. The Nasdaq was the biggest beneficiary of today's action, but not enough to see an end-of-day finish that cleared last week's swing high, nor delivery of a large white candlestick, despite the morning breakout gap.  Technicals are net bullish and relative performance against the S&P has become consistently stronger since the start of May.  While today's candlestick I would view as typically 'bearish', today's volume ranked as confirmed accumulation (bullish). Overall, I would be looking for higher prices from here. 
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Round 2 for the bearish "black" candlestick in S&P and Nasdaq

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The Nasdaq started brightly but ended up closing below its open price, but above yesterday's close. The S&P did something similar, although the intraday range is narrower. These two setups are somewhat complicated by the new 'buy' triggers in On-Balance-Volume for both the Nasdaq and S&P. And the new MACD trigger 'buy' for the S&P. Price action is key, so I would expect the candlestick to trump the technical picture; watch for lower prices tomorrow.
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