Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Daily Market Commentary: Waiting For The Break

Markets experienced a third day of indecision, leaving things much as they were yesterday.

The S&P has an inside day doji with modestly higher volume (although volume well below that of late March and early April). Natural play is to trade break of 3-day high/low with a stop on the flip side of the break.

($SPX)

via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq attempted a move into the breakdown gap, but it was quickly repelled, leaving the index back at gap resistance. Higher volume counts as an accumulation day, but point gains are what's really needed.

($COMPQ)

via StockCharts.com

The expectation was for the semiconductor index to drive higher on the back of the NSM takeover. Instead, the gains failed to break declining resistance, or get close to its 50-da MA.

($SOX)

via StockCharts.com

The failure of the semiconductor to break was enough to keep the lid on the reconstituted Nasdaq 100

via StockCharts.com

The Russell 2000 added another half a percentage point. The continuous sequence of up days offers some leeway on any subsequent weakness and retest of former resistance-turned-support. The gain in price is supported by the now decisive break of the MACD bearish divergence. Collectively, these are bullish developments in the face of general market indecision.

($RUT)

via StockCharts.com

So with Small Caps doing the legwork it looks like this rally still has plenty of fight. Should semiconductors clear declining resistance it will offer an opportunity for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to push into, and close their respective breakdown gaps. Eventually, Large Caps will be able to look beyond the currently threatened double tops and join Small Caps higher. Bulls still hold the dominant hand.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Zignals Trading Strategy Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements.

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