Thursday, December 02, 2010

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Follow Through

A second day of buying regained the bulk of losses triggered by the November sell off. The S&P registered an accumulation day and reversed the 'sell' trigger for on-balance-volume - only the MACD 'sell' is left to usurp.



The Nasdaq was a little more tentative. It cleared the congestion of the past 3 weeks, but buying volume was lighter. It is poised to crack through 2,579 resistance.



Oddly enough, given the two strong days - the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA has yet to break out of its congestion zone.



Although the Nasdaq Summation Index got its first bullish sign with the cross of -100 in the CCI.



Small Caps did well to break above former channel support, turned resistance, as part of its push to new highs. Technical strength continued to improve.



But the real winner was the semiconductor index. Another strong move put an end to the bearish divergences in the MACD and CCI and introduces a potential measured move target up around 460. Watch for resistance in my newly drawn rising channel.



Bulls will probably want a quiet day to consolidate the past two days of gains before pushing on. Bears will need more than one day of selling to reverse this powerful bull move. But with leadership coming from speculative Small Caps and Technology stocks it looks like bulls will keep control over the intermediate term. Is this the start of the Santa Rally?

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