Monday, November 22, 2010

Weekly Review of Stockcharters: Bulls Have Options

After another lengthy break a took a step back into the stockchart mix to see what others were brewing.

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave is looking at an intermediate fifth wave higher on the 60-min? So 1,227 is not the top for the current advance off the July low?


The S&P with the Presidential cycle marked


Richard Lehman of the Channelist has intermediate corrections within a long term advance.

11/18 -- Lots of short term breaks upward on higher beta charts today (at least at the minichannel level), but the Dow came right to its short term downtrend line and stopped cold. This will probably bounce further, though its too early to declare the correction over. Tomorrow is expiration. Like today, after the morning move, it should quiet down and go nowhere.

11/16 -- The correction accelerated today, asserting itself as more than just a brief respite. The dollar broke upward, stocks & commodities steepened their downtrends. This may bounce at any time, but looks like it will morph into a larger downtrend and be with us for a while (i.e. weeks).

11/14 -- Green short term channels have been broken. Look for a bounce early this week and a secondary peak from which we can draw new short term downchannels.

11/9 -- Looks like a blow-off today in gold & oil and related stocks. Small cap stocks broke their latest minis also, but are most likely just flattening into larger and flatter upchannels. In short, it's the kind of volatility that an easily spooked and very overbought market is subject to.

11/7 -- After all the expected whipsaw week, most equity indexes bolted out of their two-week pre-election consolidation and are back at upper lines of the short term channels. The short term channels, by the way, have been containing this move quite well over the past two months, with only slight slope changes here and there.

The long term charts do not provide the same level of confidence, however, as we do not have two peaks yet from which to draw confident upper or lower trend lines. Thus, the tentative upper lines keep steepening or pushing upward, forcing us to guess at a top until a clear peak is in place. That said, the market is quite extended, but is also in somewhat of an unprecedented scenario. If the Fed says they are intentionally engineering a higher stock market through massive bond purchases, are we crazy not to go along for the ride?


Anthony D Allyn of Elliotwavehound is looking at the cusp of a (very) large decline. How far will it evolve - or will it break higher instead?


Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview shows a gorwing bearishness in the market - but neutral signals still dominate.


Yong Pan's mechanical trading system has gone 'long' the SPY


But a 'sell' signal on the intermediate time fram signals???


Head-and-shoulder target of 1,242 effectively reached? Or will this push higher from current decline to make this target?


Ted Burge of TheTedLines.com has a chart which shows a sell dynamic very similar to that of April this year.


Finally, Michael G Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts.blogspot.com is working off a short signal from resistance


But with the opportunity for another (fifth wave again) leg higher....


But there are downside targets to look too first


So, a mixed bag of outlook - both short and long - maybe a new high can come out of this?

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