Monday, October 11, 2010

Weekly Review of Stockcharters: Bearish Creep

Markets ended with a little flourish on Friday - is it a harbringer of things to come?

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave hasn't changed any of his recent assessments. He is still on a bullish call???


Anthony D Allyn of Elliotwavehound is holding to his Crash outlook.

Oct 8th: doji reversal. Crash imminent. All indicators point to a the beginning of wave III of 3. The smart money has already sold and gone short, while market sentiment hits recent highs. The easy money is finally about to be made on the short side, and no amount of manipulation can prevent it. The media campaign... to change investor sentiment has failed miserably.

If markets are looking at the start of a fall, by Anthony's reckoning, today should be the beginning. His weekly chart makes for particularly scary viewing, undermining what I spoke of earlier today on the Zignals blog.


The S&P hourly looks similarly grim.


Richard Lehman of the Channelist.com has markets riding upper bullish channels on the short term (intraday) time frames. His comments were:

10/7 -- GLD and USO finally pulled back -- GLD right to the lower green channel line where it promptly bounced to remain in trend. but USO perhaps breaking. Broad equities markets have been meandering since Tuesday as in prior weeks like a junkie wandering the streets in search of the next fix.

10/5 -pm- The Fed's actions caught a tail wind and gave us a larger than usual Tuesday boost. Importantly, it took what were short term trend breaks yesterday and turned them into slope changes today that keep the green channels alive, albeit at lesser slopes (except for GLD of course, which is beginning to rise exponentially now in what is looking more and more like pre-bubble mode). Impressively, the channels are still peaking and troughing on parallel lines, so despite the artificially-induced spike, the markets are still channelling uqite effectively.

The long term charts really haven't changed. In fact the Dow and SPX just got closer to their upper lines. Prior weeks saw consolidation following the Tuesday spike, so I expect to see that again. That could mean sideways choppiness or even a slight decline, but without more Fed-induced adrenaline, the market cannot keep up today's pace.

10/5 -am- Another Tuesday POMO: Dollar down, gold and stocks up. This negates the red minis in favor of a slope change instead!

10/4 -- The short term channels have now broken. Thus far, there are red minis forming, but it is too early to infer from that how big of a decline this may turn into. The one-year charts suggest the possibility of around 5% to the lower end of the green upchannels, so that's a guideline worth keeping in mind.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview is showing some bearish creep on market breadth. Intermediate trading signals starting to turn bearish.


His VIX:VXN ratio is showing a strong push to the bear side


Have 10-year Treasury yields hit a bottom? This chart would suggest 'a bottom' if not 'the bottom'


Michael Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts is looking downwards for the S&P, c750 for a wave 3 move.


Finally, we close with Joe Reed. Have we topped in GLD?


The Dow Jones US Oil&Gas Index is looking similarly stretched:


Nasdaq Summation Index also under pressure as Nasdaq 100 approaches resistance


Certainly, there is very little bullish sentiment to be taken here. Will markets play to the negativity?

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