Sunday, October 03, 2010

Weekly Market Commentary:Breakouts Hold on Mixed Breadth Action

Last week's breakouts held in a mixed week for the markets. The prior week's breakout in the S&P was followed by one of low volume on strengthening technicals.

($SPX)

via StockCharts.com

It was the same story for the Nasdaq; low volume losses on strengthening technicals.

AAAA Nasdaq

via StockCharts.com

But for the Nasdaq Bullish Percents there was a confirmed 'buy' as the W-bottom completed. However, just as this summer's trading mimicked that of 2007, will action for the end of the this year match that of the start of 2008? There is a case for a mammoth bull trap, but even if true it doesn't mean the market will reverse immediately. Breadth is likely to rally to 60%+ before things start to get worrisome for bulls.

($BPCOMPQ)

via StockCharts.com

However, the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above 50-day MA is up against declining resistance which has repelled all advances since the start of 2009; it could so again?

($NAA50R)

via StockCharts.com

Finally, the Russell 2000 was able to close higher on the week, but it hasn't quite got the juice of other indices (although it's doing better on the daily timeframe).

via StockCharts.com

So will the Bullish Percents or Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA dictate next week's action for the Nasdaq?

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