Weekly Market Commentary: Tech Close To MACD Trigger 'Buy
In the S&P, until 1,129 breaks it's hard to see the post-April trading range going anywhere and volume will need to pick up. Stochastics are in no-mans-land, the recent decline failed to push either short or long term stochastics into oversold territory - has this rally come a little early?
($SPX)
via StockCharts.com
Even with the pending MACD 'buy' the Nasdaq 100 remains range bound between 1,702 and 1,978 with the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1,678 to catch the break of 1,702 (should it come). The August reaction high at 1,919 is the challenge to overcome to convert short-term strength into something more substantial.
($NDX)
via StockCharts.com
Breadth indicators aren't a great help. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA is caught at 50% although rising from its July 23rd 'Buy' signal
($NAA50R)
via StockCharts.com
While the Nasdaq Bullish Percents hasn't dropped below the sub-40% range typical of significant reaction lows.
($BPCOMPQ)
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Only the Nasdaq Summation Index has given some reason a bottom is in place; the Confirmed 'Buy' on August 13th has yet to be negated.
($NASI)
via StockCharts.com
While the Percentage of S&P Stocks Above the 50-day MA is getting toasty at 72%; although a reaction high in the parent index typically occurs after a divergence in the breadth indicator, and this is still some weeks away.
($SPXA50R)
via StockCharts.com
Once the Labor Day weekend is over we can expect to see trading volume increase. What direction this volume dictates will ultimately decide the fate of post-April trading range and set the tone for 2011.
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