Sunday, August 29, 2010

Weekly Market Commentary: Market Not Oversold

No surprise to see markets ease lower but there has yet to be a clear drop into oversold conditions.

The S&P does have the early makings of a bullish divergence in the MACD histogram although I'm not convinced the 61.8% Fib retracement will act as support for a second time; look to the 50% mark at 951.70 for buyers.



The Nasdaq is toying with the head-and-shoulder neckline and is closer to oversold than the S&P. It has yet see a test of its 61.8% Fib retracement at 2,050.



Small Caps too also have to contend with head-and-shoulder support



Breadth indicators look down towards the abyss. The Nasdaq Bullish Percent hasn't reached the 40% level typical of reaction lows; or tested whether it will make a dive into the teens or sub-10% of the past couple of years.



The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA attempted to dig in the 25-30% 'buy' zone.



Although the confirmed 'Buy' in the S&P Bullish Percents is under pressure - but not negated - yet.



Another week of downside, or a prelude to a poor September-October?

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