Saturday, May 29, 2010

Weekly Market Commentary: Trend Down But Breadth Close to 'Buy'

What markets did last week was less the story than what market breadth offered. The S&P finished some 85 points above the first Fibonacci support level with stochastics [39,1] just below bullish support.

($SPX)

via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq similarly has a long way to go before it reaches the first of Fibonacci support levels (almost 200 points away). But nothing to suggest a bottom yet.

via StockCharts.com

The real moves came for breadth indicators. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents finished on rising support connecting 2008/09 reaction lows; the best chance of a bounce before requiring a push to oversold levels. No technical 'buy' yet.

($BPCOMPQ)

via StockCharts.com

The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above 50-day MA is deep in oversold territory at 24% but no technical 'buy'; it will take a few weeks before the MACD is in a position to do so.

($NAA50R)

via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq Summation Index hasn't quite made it to oversold levels either by 'price' or technically.

($NASI)

via StockCharts.com

The NYSE Summation Index is in similar position but is at least oversold technically

($NYSI)

via StockCharts.com

The S&P Bullish Percents dropped into prior bullish territory, at least until 2008 erupted, now it's kinda neutral but technicals are oversold.

($BPSPX)

via StockCharts.com

But the Percentage of S&P stocks above the 50-day MA is oversold with a low comparable to the major reaction lows of the past 3 years.

($SPXA50R)

via StockCharts.com

A buying opportunity is in the mix, but it may not be *the* buying opportunity. Monday might offer a sniff to the long side as part of an accumulator play.

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