Monday, March 29, 2010

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

Friday's shakey end to the week still left markets trading above a slew of support levels. Will anything change this week?

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliottwave has revised the prior wave count for the ABC correction off March 2009 lows; will wave 1 = wave 5? If so, there is more upside to come


Is there a five-wave phase within a five? Does this suggest a significant move higher for Large Caps (higher than Tech for example)???


Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview continues with a decidely neutral take on the market; this has changed little in weeks - good news then?


Other than tracking negative divergences there is little new here:


Is the top in place?


Richard Lehman of Trendchannelmagic.com offers his views:

3/26 -- A few more tests of blue minis and a few more tests of green channel support lines puts the rally in a little more precarious position as the last couple of days for quarter-end window dressing approach. Watch closely for possible breaks early next week.

3/25 -- The voracity of the drop off today's highs and a rise in VIX provide a glimpse of hope for the short players, but we need to see more before declaring this a correction of any sort. The spike peak and midday reversal offer good signals of a momentum change and several blue mini channels broke. But only a few greens have thus far, and those need to break for us to be in a new short term downtrend. Watch the hourly charts for those potential breaks as the lower green channel lines on the 5-minute charts are no longer anchored on a visible low point and could be slightly off.

Also, institutions are likely to want to hold things up for the quarter end (unless it truly starts to sink). But then there will likely be tax selling in the first two weeks of April to pay for 2009 gains.

3/24 -- An exceptionally strong day for the dollar caused gold and oil to sell off again, and that led to the first break of uptrend of any kind in XAU. Equities declined leisurely and are not really threatening to break anywhere else yet. But the dollar is in a nice upchannel and could still go higher, eventually causing equities to roll over.

3/23 -- Needless to say, the money keeps on flowing in, dips keep on getting bought and the Dow trucks along at the rate of about 35 points per day on average. Back at the upper channel lines, we could see a dip tomorrow, but don't blink or you'll miss it.

3/22 -- The market still lives in rarified air, but a number of charts have seen bounces off lower channel lines to remain in uptrends. With the dollar resuming its uptrend, gold, oil, and China stocks are weak and may go lower still, while US equities manage to remain afloat on a sea of cheap money.
Michael Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts.blogsport.com has a rising wedge illustrated for the S&P; but also note the growing weakness in supporting technicals


Joe Reed offers his summary:


Banking Top? Stochastics on 'sell' but haven't left overbought (therefore trending) levels.


Finally, Ahsan Haque of TadingSignals.blogspot.com is watching for a head-and-shoulder top in the S&P


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