Monday, March 29, 2010

Stock Market Commentary: Mixed Bag

Some indices closed higher, others closed flat. Volume was lower all around. Large caps did 'the best' but the bearish pressure from the combo harami and shooting star remains.


Tech was more neutral; the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 finished on indecisive doji with the semiconductor index lingering around support. For the semiconductor index there was a whipsaw 'sell' trigger and a drop out of overbought levels for stochastics - generally signifying a weakening of trend. But while support holds bulls keep control; note 20-day MA is rising to meet price.


Note the Nasdaq also had a MACD trigger 'sell'


Small Caps were quiet but its technicals are growing increasingly bearish.


Of sentiment indicators the Nasdaq Summation Index completed a bearish cross of 5-day and 3-day EMAs in addition to a MACD trigger 'sell' and a 'sell' relative to Bullish Percents - rally cracking


Is there enough for bears to turn the screw? Momentum is with the bulls so I suspect there is enough to see bulls retain control Tuesday, but increasing technical weakness from indices and supporting breadth indicators suggest their grip is weakening and an intermediate length bear phase (3 weeks to 3 months) is about to begin.

There were 29 breakouts but only four had any interest and only one, CATM, suggested there could be more in the tank.

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