Saturday, February 13, 2010

Weekly Market Commentary: Modest Gains But Not Oversold

The week closed with modest gains after last week's confirmed 'Sells' across the board. While there may be some indication of short term bottoms on daily timeframes there isn't the support on the weekly picture - either from the indices themselves or from breadth indicators.

For the S&P short-term stochastics look to be a couple of weeks away from a bottom - with longer term stochastics months away from doing so (although these could find support at the bullish mid-line if this is a true bull market). The S&P sits at a former resistance level - now support - at 1,062, but Fib retracements look better for a stronger bottom.


Small Caps have returned below the two resistance levels, leaving behind a bull trap


The Nasdaq is stuck in a no-mans land between support and resistance


While Nasdaq breadth is weakening, it hasn't yet reached true oversold levels (although supporting technicals have). Bullish Percents are closer to overbought.


While the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA are nearer to oversold.


With the Summation Index somewhere in-between


So while the daily charts still favour a continuation of the rally, weekly charts aren't so promising for a sustainable bottom - yet.


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