Monday, January 04, 2010

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

In with the new out with the old; has anything changed from the last week of 2009? Stockcharters discuss...

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave has labelled a 3rd wave top on the S&P 60-min chart at 1,130 with targets of 1,158-1,162 for the five wave move (part of a 'C' wave - but not the major 'B' wave top which will mark the end of the bull rally).


Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has short term market conditions as neutal with intermediate very mixed.


A host of reversal signals - but no real break


Questioning the validity of the Santa breakout; where's the volume?


Watch for VIX breakout


Joe Reed summary:


Summation Index close to overbought


Retail Index up against 61.8% fib retracement and resistance - a break past 72% retracement is usually enough to see it go all the way to new highs.


Richard Lehman of Trendchannelmagic.com offers his views:

1/2 -- A grand new year to all! By now, you've no doubt read the 2010 predictions from a dozen sources and concluded that we're either going to have a surprisingly strong recovery or a horrendous bear market. Personally, I refrain from ridiculous prognostications covering an entire year, as we will no doubt have several tradable bull and bear periods this year.

Anyway, we will begin with some continued weakness, as the US markets suffered some last minute jitters and accelerated downward on Thursday. That will likely see the indexes head down toward their lower green upchannels on the short term charts (around Dow 10300 and SPX 1105). That MAY represent a buying opportunity if it holds. The dollar's rise seems to be keeping a lid on stocks and gold and a continued rise in the near term will jive with the above scenario.

Longer term, little has changed yet and momentum indicators are still heading higher, though the short term has to continue to go negative for at least a few more days in order to get those black lines on the stochastics to roll over and head down.

12/29 -- Another holiday weekday in the upchannels. I have redrawn most of the short term charts now to reflect the push to the upside. While things push lazily higher and momentum indicators continue upward, the holiday and the year will draw to an end. My sense is that we will have a sell-off very soon, but that is not supported by the data just yet. Meanwhile, I have been charting the 1938-39 market against the current one and the parallels are compelling. I'll provide some data on that soon.

Matthew Frailey of Breakpointtrades.com monitors S&P and GE divergences - another one from last week:


But note breakout in market-leading Small Caps:


Finally, Robert New of Theinformedtrader has gone for a test of 20/50-day EMAs as a likely starting point for 2010.


I suspect the first week will see the market trying to find its feet and would be surprised if there is a big move in either direction. Robert New's idea for a test of 20/50-day EMAs (or SMAs) is probably an ideal starting point.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com. November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is on course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a new rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard. Zignals now has new fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt and soon Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active fundamental system stock screener and trading system builder. New Forex and Index data.

 
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