Monday, November 30, 2009

Weekly Review of Publishers' Charts

The shortened week was not short on action. What changed for the markets?

Anthony Caldaro of still hasn't marked in the wave 5 top - but I suspect this trend phase has completed - as has perhaps the 'abc' correction which follows. Critical time for the S&P with 1,085 a key battleground for bulls to defend.

Richard Lehman of TrendChannelMagic has a more optimistic view on things, although optimism is been neutral rather than bullish.

11/28 -- Surveying Friday's low-volume sell-off, the bears may not necessarily get the ammunition they've been looking for to go whole-hog on the short side. Oil (the commodity itself) sloped downward at an accelerated rate, but XLE remained in its existing downchannel. Financials look the weakest among sectors, but the broad indexes, including the usually fragile small caps, all held pretty much in their existing trend channels, many of which were, and still are, no worse than sideways. That's far less damage than say the FXI (China stocks) which took a hefty tumble.

VIX spiked of course, but the futures barely moved, so the December future is now at a slight discount -- suggesting that VIX has already overreacted. All this says the market got temporarily spooked, but not enough to break existing trends. So, we have to wait and see if a larger round of selling yet unfolds or if current trends persist.

11/26 -- Another day in the helium-filled balloon called the stock market. Gold now enters the stratosphere. Prechter tells subscribers to go 200% short. Caveat emptor.

11/24 -- The Monday spike-and fade pattern seems to have found a nice home in US markets now. What that has given us are short term charts that have either morphed to flatter uptrends or sideways channels with a few actually heading lower. While mixed, and not yet showing a peak, it still makes me feel like an ambush is on the horizon. Long term charts are still way toppy and vulnerable. Even Gold hit a big upper line now in the one-year chart.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview supports Richard's neutral theme with a mix of signals for both the short term and intermediate term conditions - certainly nothing outright bearish.

Friday was a significant distribution day even if absolute volume was holiday level trading.

Bullish Percents rolling over again

Ted Burge of has the NYSE Composite sitting on a key line with the 20-day MA just below. Point of defence for bulls?

Michael Eckert of has small caps lingering around vulnerable fan-line support.

The S&P also has a fan-line of contention to deal with

Michael has illustrated a new fifth wave trend down after a failed fifth wave in the prior rally; will the S&P reach 1,045 or below on its current third wave?

Matthew Frailey of Breakpointtrades shows short Cap rejection is clear for all to see

As a final chart I have taken the weekly S&P view from Robert New. On his chart, the larger battle between the index and 2-year resistance + 50% fib retracement is one which might prove a step too far for the current advance

Markets are still locked in a narrow trading range but evidence suggests Friday's weakness will extend. However, this weakness may do nothing more than expand the trading range; scrappy action with a bearish bias looks the favoured outcome from this.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is on course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a new rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard. Zignals now has new fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt and soon Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active fundamental system stock screener and trading system builder. New Forex and Index data.