Monday, November 23, 2009

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

The shortened holiday week is unlikely to see significant change in the market (or at least one which would hold after the holiday), but after the events of last week - where do markets lie?

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave has marked a completion of the 5-wave up phase on the 60-min S&P from the start of November and has kicked in the start of the next 'abc' down. But it doesn't look like this is the major 'B' top of the 'ABC' correction (the one which - according to EWTs - will have bulls quaking in their boots when the 'C' leg begins).


Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has practically all short-term conditions set at neutral with a mixed-bag on the intermediate time frame. A recipe for sideways action? Use Stochastics over MACD???


The break of the bearish wedge is playing to form; key test to follow at the 20-day and 50-day MAs.


How about the suggested head-and-shoulder reversal in the 30-min SPY?


Confirmed 'sell' in daily chart:


Richard Lehman of Trendchannelmagic.com favours bears but it's not a strong case.

11/21 -- The short term charts are mixed right now as some indexes, like QQQQ, RUT, USO and XLF are weak, while others are still actually heading higher (like GLD, XTC and the Dow) and the rest are exhibiting little more than sideways action at the moment. Expiration day may have held things in abeyance, so hopefully we'll get more clues as early as Monday on the direction of this move. The weight of evidence in both short and long term time frames suggests a continuing decline, but the angle and width are still unclear.

11/19 -- Breaks are now universal across the short term charts and they've gone deeper than would be permissible for just a slope change. The blue channel on the Dow and green on most other charts are history. The initial pattern doesn't give us enough data to draw downchannels with confidence quite yet, but that should come soon enough.The Dow is the notable laggard, by the way in terms of percentage selloff. Meanwhile, indexes like XLF and XLE may potentially break longer term support soon if this continues.

11/19 -am- A break appears to be in this morning and has surpassed the level at which it could be just a slope change (see SPX chart). Cannot draw a mini down channel until we get a leg back up.

11/17 -- This is now another one of those times when we look at the charts and wish we could have just closed our eyes and bought into the short term upchannels at the beginning of the month. Nothing has changed and everything remains in short term uptrends. If you want to watch something for the first signs of a break, I'd watch the financials -- they are weak and closest to a potential break in trend.

Joe Reed has a good chart for the dollar which suggests (as per stochastics) the downtrend has yet to complete; dollar index to 70?


Can minor trend support help defeat the break from the larger bearish wedge in Large Caps (Dow shown here)?


Retail Index has reached the point of max retracement if this is to be nothing more than a bear correction:


But financials have room to maneuver higher


Finally, Michael Eckert of EWT Trends and Charts has done some fan-line analysis on the S&P 60-min. Note bearish divergences in the MACD and TRIX in supporting technicals.


Nothing really new in any of this; markets overbought - as they have been for months - signs of weakness, but as yet, no follow through.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com. November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is on course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a new rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard. Zignals now has new fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt and soon Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active fundamental system stock screener and trading system builder. New Forex and Index data.

 
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