Saturday, November 14, 2009

Weekly Market Commentary: Slow Rollover Continues

Another week of point gains, but supporting technicals continue their downward descent. The S&P is very close to a MACD trigger 'sell' with Fibonacci retracements still in play; however, a break of 1,107 would favour a push perhaps as far as 1,222.

The Nasdaq is fighting resistance which marked support in early 2008. Its MACD 'sell' is already in play.

Although the Nasdaq 100 gives hope with its move into 'fresh air' and a possible move into the 2000s. But it does have a MACD trigger 'sell' to contend with.

However, the positives in the Nasdaq 100 are undermined by the struggles in the Russell 2000 - and the Russell 2000 is more important from a leadership perspective. Small Caps lie well below resistance with MACD 'sell' and weakening long term stochastics (momentum) to consider.

Market breadth has long been sided with the bears. The Nasdaq Summation Index has been on a 'sell' since July 10th.

And the weakness in the Bullish Percents has generated a new 'sell' signal; the last of the key Nasdaq Breadth signals to turn bearish (the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA generated a 'sell' on July 10th)

With all three key Nasdaq breadth indicators negative, and small caps (and semiconductors) struggling it would not be considered foolish to step aside and let the heat leave the market before long sided positions could be considered again.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is on course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a new rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard. Zignals now has new fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt and soon Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active fundamental system stock screener and trading system builder. New Forex and Index data.