Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Stock Market Commentary: Distribution but no real weakness

The losses on heavier volume rank as distribution but on a point scale the losses were mild. However, it wasn't the upside follow through which yesterday's gains had set up. The biggest hit came with small caps and the bearish engulfing pattern brought the index towards its 20-day MA with relative strength shifting back in favour of tech indices; markets are now in their most bearish alignment of large caps > tech > small caps.


The semiconductor index had a shooting star (which fell outside of overbought stochastic levels so it's a weak candleline) along with a MACD trigger 'sell'. An underlying weakness influencing tech averages.


The weakness in tech averages is apparent in the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day MAs. Since peaking in May the percentage has dropped from 85% down to 68% of stocks above this key moving average. How long can this rally last and how hard will it fall when the inevitable decline arrives?

How much desire is there from sideline money to come in here?


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

 
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