Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

A day late getting this out but Monday will have left bulls smiling. What do the Stockcharters' have to say?

Anthony Caldaro of ObjectiveElliotWave has a 5-wave trend phase for the S&P, with the fifth wave currently in play (so look for an equal or new high).


Yong Pan of CobrasMarketView has a neutral short term and mixed-looking intermediate outlook on the market - this probably helps bulls more than bears.


Notice how the last three reaction lows (since July) have not seen any gain in up-volume. This is worrying for the 'busy' time of year typical of September, going into October.


Channel support to lean on (or a failure of the last bounce off support to reach the upper channel?)


Richard Lehman has broader up-channels dominating the minor down-channel currently in play.

9/28 -- The red minis were right on as the indexes bounced off lower red lines and took off on the upside. They may get to the upper reds or not -- we'll see shortly. (The XLF actually landed right on its upper red today.) If they go through the upper reds, then we will have to assume a new uptrend, but until that occurs, it's still a mini downtrend within the larger green short term channels that continue upward.

9/27 -- The short term picture is universally evident across the charts. We hit the upper green short and long term lines again last week and have fallen back harder than since August. The buy-the-dips crowd has not yet jumped in and that makes this a likely candidate to at least test support on the lower green lines on the short term charts. We should do that this week. The red minis have been drawn, and you can see that the indexes are crawling along the lower red rather than bouncing back up. They could still yet bounce within these downchannels, but they may also accelerate downward, especially given the weakness of the last few days. We should know whether the red minis are steepening as early as tomorrow.

Either way, the green short term lines are very important. A break would put us in a short term downtrend which could go well into October and do some material damage. The long term charts will easily accommodate such an event, and the VIX futures are still forecasting it.

p.s. I presented a condensed version of the book at a Behavioral Finance Symposium and got a very positive reception. Will be speaking again this Wednesday at Golden Gate University in SF.

Dr. Joe goes with the week in review:


Is the Gold-Silver Index at a support 'buy'?


Matthew Frailey of Breakpointtrades has a nice chart showing the convergence of resistance in the market-leading small caps (Russell 2000).


Will September be the 'B' wave top of the 'ABC'; if so October won't see much upside.


VIX breakout still valid


There really hasn't been any significant change on last week and there is a good chance this week will see a new end-of-week high. Markets are uber-rich looking but there isn't a logical place to go short.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

 
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