Monday, September 21, 2009

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

Start the week much as we have left previous ones - up trend intact but overbought.

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave has an updated 60-min count for the S&P. Minor 'abc' with the 'c' part soon to complete? One new high to come before the next (mini-)downswing begins?


But this minor 'abc' is part of the 'B' wave on the daily which has yet to complete


Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has a sweep of intermediate 'buy' signals (one new 'buy' signal for Friday it looks). Short term mixed.


Ratio of Up to Down volume lacklustre and typical of a top; but it has been like this since the middle of August and the S&P still managed to tack on another 50 points.


Stochastic 'sell' signal on the Daily S&P. Perhaps time for a move back to wedge support which is just below the 20-day MA


Weekly resistance pressuring too?


Richard Lehman is watching for sideways action.

9/19 -- Another triple-witching Friday is in the books, and we'll now get to see how this market can hold up during the head winds of October. The blue minis on short term charts have lost momentum or changed slope, but any breaks this far have been sideways, if not actually up. I keep watching the risk-sectors like oil, gold, small caps, and techs for early clues on a correction, but there haven't been any yet. Even though, they've hit short term green channel lines, that doesn't cap their ascent -- it only causes them to change the RATE of ascent.

Meanwhile, though, the one-year greens have been hit as well, and those are more likely to provide resistance. I expect that a change in momentum to almost sideways here in the shorter term is more likely than a huge sell-off. If the market does manage to continue toward 10,000 here soon (only a few days ride from here, really), I'd be alert to the probability THAT could trigger a round of semi-serious profit taking, once the celebration wears off. (By the way...Larry McMillan's comments that I quoted on Thursday are mentioned verbatim in Barrons 'Striking Price' column this weekend.)

9/17 -pm- I adjusted all the short term green uptrend lines to the recent peaks. They may yet go even steeper, but for now, I'm playing this as a short term peak. So they ALL will show having hit their upper green short term lines now because I adjusted the lines that way. When a channel line pushes steeper, you have to do that. The long term greens, however were not adjusted at all, yet they too are all getting hit now. That is probably the most significant development here.

By the way, for you Elliot Wavers, Bob Prechter's target range for this rebound has been hit now (and slightly exceeded). It represents a 38% retracement of the Wave one decline to the March bottom, which is a common fibonacci retracement number...but so is 50% and 62%!

The Joe Reed summary


Next set of Fib targets in play (different to Prechters'?)


Oil to break this week; $74 the watch area?


Finally, the Ahsan U. Haque of TheSmartTrader outlook for the market:




Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

 
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