Sunday, August 02, 2009

Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Long Term Stochastics Finally Overbought

It has taken a while for momentum to shift to the bullish extreme but stochastics [39,1] on weekly charts has done so. However, it is not unusual for stochastics to remain at these extremes for a number of weeks - perhaps months - before breaking. A clear example can be seen in the S&P; just look at how stochastics behaved in the latter part of 2006 and early 2007. The week also closed with another tick in the accumulation column although the bearish divergence continued to evolve in the MACD histogram.


For the Nasdaq the index fell a point shy of testing the 2006 reaction low resistance (former support). It did run into declining resistance for the cyclical bear market; a potential major stumbling block for the advance. There was also no net accumulation for the week here.


Nasdaq Bullish Percents recovered from a MACD 'sell' but it's debatable how long this can last.


But a clear bearish divergence is developing for the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA.


And Summation Index


With no reversal on either's confirmed 'Sell'.

The good news for bulls is that the Russell 2000 still looks to be the index with the most room to maneuver higher. However, contrarians would view this as a sign of weakness with the traditional bull market leader lagging the performance of its peers.


It's hard to fight the tape but it would appear the longer we go higher the harder the next fall will be.

Buyers mettle will be tested soon enough.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

 
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