Monday, August 17, 2009

Weekly Review of StockCharts.com Public Charts

After a lengthy break back is the weekly review of the StockCharters. Futures are taking a beating this morning so the trading range which has been in play for August looks ready to break.

Maurice Walker was top-dog of the publishers ranked by hits, but Yong Pan of CobrasMarketView is the lead here. Even given the last time I looked at this summary the short term picture has stayed doggedly neutral.


The hindsight July accumulation spike says 875 will be a big defence zone for the S&P


Not sure about the SPY 'buy' signal


Because the weekly 'sell' signal look dominant


Breakout gaps to close; looking more likely to follow the 46% route!


Interesting trading plan:


Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveeliottwave has me confused on the EWT labelling; not sure how the trend can break into a "abc" as part of the countertrend "ABC" - surely it's a five wave up? Whatever way the count goes it looks like it's down from here.


Richard Lehman's sideways channels are looking more like a double top:


8/15 -- The great pause continues as both bulls & bears duke it out to position themselves for the next move. Friday's drop was the biggest in a while by mid-day, but nearly half of that decline was erased by the close. There is clearly more money that seizes each decline to come off the interest-poor sidelines to get on the equity train. Yet we are also just as clearly overbought now on technical terms, and it is widely acknowledged that the market has already built in a hefty amount of optimism that the economy is turning this quarter. What it all amounts to is the stalemate we are seeing as black horizontal channels in the short term charts.

The market has thus reached an equilibrium of sorts on the basis of the current outlook. The bulls see minimal upside here until the economy proves that it has turned the corner and until the 2010 earnings picture is more visible. The bears know that while a short term overbought situation exists, a pullback will hardly retrace the lows we were at when the economy was still heading into an abyss earlier this year. The Markets don't remain in equilibrium very long, however. New information will inevitably tip the scale one way or another in short order.

For your reference, my colleague Larry McMillan was quoted in two Barron's articles this weekend. One article noted: 'During the week, McMillan Analysis told clients, their study showed an 89% correlation between the two years [2009 and 1938]. 'For the record, a late-July top in 1938 saw a modest decline to a late-September bottom, after which prices skyrocketed to new yearly highs by November: 58% off the March lows of that year,' the firm said its research shows.'

My plan is to heed the black lines and either go short or long as an upward or downward break directs.

Joe Reed keeps a running count of the recession:


Dow, S&P and NYSE toy with 38% fib retracement resistance; Nasdaq caught between 38% and 50% fib levels.


Next move down for the dollar?


Finally Ahsan U. Haque has marked downward fib retracements for the S&P off the rising bearish wedge


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

 
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