Monday, July 06, 2009

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

Are bears gaining the upper hand? Big week ahead for bulls. What had the Stockcharts.com ers had to say about it? As an aside, there is some odd behavior with respect to the hit counts on the public stockcharts.com list; up until the last few weeks the rankings had been remarkably consistent but it's shifting now.

George Zimmerman of GSZimmTrading.com takes top spot. He shows the weekly NYSE Bullish Percent down at its 20-week EMA although this hasn't been an inflexion point in the past. More likely this EMA is used to denote direction of the S&P?


The daily is on a 'sell' trigger (20-day EMA cross)


Peter at Cobrasmarketview has a couple of bullish and bearish signals emerging on the short term window, but neutral signals predominate. Intermediate term nearly all 'sell' signals.


Distribution creep over the past couple of weeks:


Head-and-shoulder bearish pattern becoming more evident for the SPY:


Within the context of a larger bullish head-and-shoulder pattern (that everyone is expecting):


First time I have seen this - Institutional Index:


Richard Lehman's words of wisdom:

7/2 -- [Market is closed on Friday.] This morning's opening decline confirmed the short term turn and solidified the purple as the operative channels. We are now in red minis across the board, which I was able to drawn in already. A sharp down opening on Monday is not likely, but if it occurs, it would mean a far steeper angle down for the red minis. Otherwise, we should see a bounce within the red minis that would set up another shorting opportunity.

We only know at this point that the lower purples are the eventual targets in the bear term, though there is a lot of open room on the charts stemming from the huge move up in March, and things could get more serious here, especially if Q2 earnings come in weak. VIX shot up, as we would expect, and the futures went up also, but not as much, thereby reducing the premium and lessing the bearish case slightly from here.

7/1 -- This morning's surprising up move turned the breaks of blue minis to slope changes instead and dropped back in the afternoon to confirm that. So, the blue minis extended and many of the purple short term downtrend lines ended up being adjusted upward slightly as a result -- but since there was only one point on the lower purple line, that doesn't destroy the integrity of any parallel channels. It simply makes the purples a bit steeper than was originally projected. In my view, the weight of evidence still therefore suggests another down move as imminent.

Joe Reed has noted some 5% 10-yr Corporate Yield deals from the like of MSFT:


GLD approaching oversold levels; breakdown or buying opportunity?


Finally, Ahsan U. Haque of Thesmarttrader has also gone with the bear head-and-shoulder pattern with a Fib target of 846 on the S&P


But with a couple of big gaps to fill from Friday (1-min):


So are we to see some early week strength only to give way later in the week to bears?

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

 
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