Thursday, June 11, 2009

Stock Market Commentary: Status Quo

Higher volume selling returned with a 'Hanging Man' on the Nasdaq, but action says more of a consolidation than any nature of a blowoff top. Technicals point towards modest weakness with a developing bearish divergence in the MACD but countered by strongly overbought stochastics.


The Dow is interesting in three doji were followed by another indecisive spinning top, but volume was well below average - barely registering 1 billions shares; presumably the reshuffle in the components accounted for much of this.


The Russell 2000 held its breakout without threatening to move one way or the other. A 'sell' trigger did emerge in its CCI which may move in favour of a breakout failure but it's not supported (so far) by other technicals.


One point of interest from breadth indicators is the struggle from the Nasdaq Bullish Percents to register a firm MACD trigger 'buy' following its recent advance.


While the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA is suggesting the May rally is a crock; bearish divergences and 'sell' triggers dominate.


The problem with these breadth indicators is they can continue to diverge for some time relative to the index; one only has to look at 2006 as an example - it took a full year before the market rolled over (but rollover it did!).

Futures are suggesting a positive start for the day.

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[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon


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Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

 
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