Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Market Sentiment: Room for Maneuver

Babak has covered market sentiment in broader detail and is worth a read. This is just my 2 cents. There is broad agreement on the toppy nature of the the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA but just to add supporting technicals have also reached matching overbought conditions or have started to negatively diverge (Ultimate Oscillator and MACD histogram).


The Summation Index has not topped, having surpassed recent bear market resistance around -250 it is currently on course to test historic bear market resistance of 0. A push to +500 puts it into bull market territory. Supporting technicals are not suggesting a top either.


Bullish Percents haven't reached resistance either.


Maybe there is still a new high left for the rally although the 5-min futures look to be shaping a bearish descending triangle. If this was to play to form it would turn the Summation Index and Bullish Percent Index in favour of bears.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.
 
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