Monday, March 23, 2009

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

Markets have remained resilient in the face of acute buying. How does it look for the week ahead?

Yong Pan shows a more neutral picture for the short term which he considers toppish but I think might actually be more bullish.


However, Pan's next chart fits better with a short term top thesis


As does the convergence of sentiment (NYUPV and NYADV) at heavily overbought levels:


Piling on the bear case is a very bearish looking 30 min chart:


New kid on the block, Tomas Leszcynski, uses ribbon analysis and it's very pretty in a very non-bullish way. Based on this simple chart it's going to take a while before bulls can look at the market with confidence. He has a website, santoren.com, which I haven't checked yet but readers should click on through.


A slew of bullish signals off the March lows:


Here is another take on the SPY's 30 minute; the lack of annotations probably suggests a more neutral outlook


Or is this a major top?


Richard Lehman has started to look at more intermediate bullish channels:


Richard is working on a new site and publication. Here were his comments from the weekend:

3/21 -- The end of the week brought with it the official end of the initial up move from March 9th. However, the question now is whether that up move was part of a larger channel that will continue upward after a brief pullback here. The larger green channel drawn on the Dow, Naz and others shows this larger possibility. As long as that green can hold, that possibility remains intact. So far, so good, as the emerging red minis downward don't look too threatening. We should know soon enough as the lower channel line could be tested in another day or so.

The long term charts support the continuation of this move as the Dow, SPX and RUT all have room to go before hitting the purple down lines on the one-year charts. The Naz, QQQQ, and sectors are being influenced by the run in oil, gold and the commodities, and are tracking differently.

Financials went point-to-point from the bottom channel line to the top, providing about the best trading opportunity of the year so far. I bought them (XLF) at the bottom and then bought the triple inverse (FAZ) at the top for just a two-day hold. As a result, my IRA is now positive on the year -- a reasonable accomplishment in this market with a non-marginable, non-shortable account.

BOOK/WEB SITE UPDATE: The book is now in editing and slated for publication in November. I'm working on the site and may have something up as early as May.

Here is his alternate channel for the Dow:


Joe lists the 5 (only 5!!) companies with an AAA credit raing.


Is Joe looking for another downleg in the market:


Dollar damage - worse to come (looking much like the indices did after their top)


Finally, I will leave you with the brief summary from EWT analyst, David Bailey:

Market day 3/02/09, Bottom Line: Well that was a pretty decent selloff, but the wave structure for wave (5) is not complete, and it still continues to subdivide. The count is either 4 5 3 (5) or 4 (5). Bounce limit for wave 4 (5) if 3 (5) bottomed 762. Visit my blog at http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com.

EWT spins my head around so head to his public list to see his charts. I am assuming we are entering the ABC correction phase having completed a significant wave 5???

Answers on a postcard....

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website
 
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