Sunday, January 18, 2009

Weekend Review: NASDAQ & S&P

After years of relative stability the weekly charts of the indices are just a mess of volatility; a test of Oct/Nov 2008 lows looks to be a necessity if a certain degree of stability, and more importantly confidence, is to be restored to buyers. The S&P has been fishing for a bottom; the last attempt came on December 1st and was confirmed on December 29th but supporting technicals are more-or-less flat - so it's hardly a ringing endorsement.


The story is no different for the Nasdaq, the only difference was the bottom and confirmation came 1 week later than for the S&P:


Nasdaq Bullish Percents may be on intermediate 'sell' signals, but on the weekly chart they show a significant break of declining resistance dating back to the start of 2007 (which turned into an early warning sign of the crash which followed). Whether this turns into a new bullish signal will be dependent on starting a run of higher lows and higher highs.


But the Percentage of New Highs cleared a 'sell' signal - it just needs technical confirmation.


And the Summation Index is pinned to resistance - the same resistance which was breached in the Bullish Percents


Things are warming slowly for bulls but breadth indicators suggest it could be the latter part of the year before bulls have some meat on which to build a rally.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website
 
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