Thursday, July 10, 2008

Market set for a higher open following Dow Chemical's shopping trip? What the market needs is some traction in the financials backed up with some speculative toe-dipping in tech and small caps. Maybe the feelgood factor will help the indices press their advantage. I am reading Richard Lehman's stockchart list for a guide on what it means for the various downtrend channels in play.

So much for the bounce. At least those who follow the magic knew that there was a big line above the Dow and sure enough it repelled the index three times! Also, I got the blue minichannel up early in the day and when it broke (the Dow was down about 80 points by then) at least we knew to pull the plug. One thing about watching these minis is they get you out quickly on market turns you may not have expected. Anyway, we are left with some false breakouts on indexes like the SPX, so now we'll need a day or so to figure out where the current channels really are on the short term charts. (Likely it will be a slope change but still heading downward, but we'll see.) Otherwise, almost all long term channels and minis are still very much intact.

If I was to make a mis-educated guess I suspect we will see a respectable close, but nothing to suggest any real undoing to yesterday's sell off. The QQQQs have 'flopped' outside of a declining channel, only to morph into some form of broadening pattern. Not very clear. Only the bullish divergence suggests a challenge on the greyline resistance is likely next on the menu:

Things are a little less clear for the SPY. There is a declining broadening wedge which provides some boundaries, but no firm bullish divergence to suggest the building of a rally:

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website